In 1978, Clint Eastwood and a baboon made a movie together, forgive me, it was an orangutan, an orangutan having 12 ribs you see. The script told the story of a bare knuckle fighter Eastwood and his little hairy friend Clyde. They chased girls together and even feuded with a motorcycle gang. This being the 1970s, back when people signaled their intentions while driving, Clint taught Clyde to signal when he was turning. By sticking his arm out the window and putting his hand down that meant he was expecting to stop, and with it raised upward it meant an intention to turn left, but if it was straight out it was a turn to the right. So Clint and Clyde are fighting with this motorcycle gang and one of them sticks his head in the passenger side window and when Clint had had enough he said “Right turn Clyde” and Clyde stuck his right arm straight out and knocked the gang banger to the ground. This movie was a rollicking good two hours of beer drinking, ass kicking, and Clint’s foul-mouthed mother was a scene stealer as she protested living with an orangutan.
Like Clyde, Europe seemed to make a hard right turn this last week with the Euro elections. This was expected in the polls, but the actual confirmation and size of the defeats were impressive. We have talked about how the farmers are protesting by driving tractors onto highways, spraying manure all over government buildings, and how the decision to stop using Russian energy was a short sighted one. Well, it seemed that the voters just pooped all over the progressive left’s agenda at the ballot box. This from ZeroHedge “After a crushing defeat in France during Sunday’s European elections, causing French President Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the French parliament and announce new elections in June and July, Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo has announced his resignation after a similar wave of populist / nationalist parties swept up votes in the bloc-wide election. In addition to France and Belgium, Germany and Austria have also see sweeping victories for anti-immigration parties…To summarize:
France: National Rally wins a historic 31.5% of the EU vote, forcing Macron to dissolve the national parliament.
Germany: AfD surges to become the 2nd largest party, liberal parties tank.
Belgium: Prime Minister resigns after his crushing defeat against the right.
Italy: Meloni’s Brother of Italy wins in a historic landslide
Austria: FPÖ doubles their seats and becomes the largest party in the nation.
Spain: Right beating the left by 10%.
Luxemburg: First ever seat for ADR.”
Now I’m far from a political expert in this country, much less one across the pond although I do watch what’s going on, but even an amateur politico can see that there is something beyond a subtle shift in politics happening. There are perhaps three main forces at play here: one, immigration, Europe like the US has a leaky border and the people are tired of seeing their countries overrun by migrants which are a drain on their system, two- economics- in addition to having to pay for migrants and migrant services, these countries have made terrible financial choices, green initiatives have failed, energy costs are rising and making their businesses less competitive, and lastly they are tired of government overstepping their bounds.
If these elections are a foreshadowing of November, we had better get ready to see more orange wigs and red ties in our future. We talked recently about how Congress passed aid packages for Ukraine and Israel but didn’t add any dollars for border security because Trump wants to hang that failed policy to Biden in the debates. Well, Biden just instituted an new illegal alien app, I’m not making this up, where certain numbers can cross and they need to register on an app. Instead of Open Table its called Open Door, ok I made the name up but the app part is true. Biden is also using superglue trying to keep this economy together until election day with lots of government data just waiting to be readjusted down as we have discussed. Our politicians understand that immigration and economics will be vital to their success in November although neither propose cutting government spending because they are both politicians.
What I do find interesting about this chain of events though is the response to it. The Belgian prime minister resigns in evidently a show of no confidence. But the Green party was shellacked as well. Sam Meredith writes for CNBC “The left-leaning Greens/European Free Alliance were set to win 52 seats in the legislative branch of the 27-member trade bloc, according to preliminary results. That’s significantly lower than the 71 seats the Greens/EFA secured when the green faction enjoyed its strongest-ever showing five years ago.
It comes amid a broader shift to the right and a green backlash — or “greenlash” — against policies designed to tackle the climate crisis and protect the environment.” Greenlash, really? The people are definitely pushing back as they see the true nature of the government’s overreach in this area.
Sophie Kiderlin writes for CNBC, “Pressure is mounting on German Chancellor Olaf Scholz after the far-right AfD made substantial gains in the European Union election on Sunday despite a string of scandals.
The AfD secured 15.9% of the vote, according to preliminary results, beating Scholz’s SPD (social democrats) and its two coalition partners in the current German government, the Greens and the FDP (free democrats).
The SPD lost support from the 2019 election, winning just 13.9% of the latest votes. The Green party’s support weakened sharply from 20.5% in 2019 to 11.9% in 2024.”
The ruling party in Germany came in third, and if you have been following the industrial job losses that followed Germany losing their Russian spigot of cheap natural gas, then this vote should come as no surprise. When people are healthy and wealthy they tend to become less and less involved in politics, see the United States of America. But, Germans are not flourishing as most of Europe is either in recession or straddling that line very carefully. The German government does seem to be stopping short of calling snap elections.
Meanwhile in Italy, Georgia Meloni is thriving. The person who the media pointed as dangerously far-right for believing such things as in God, a man and woman family not same sex marriage, and anti-immigration. It turns out that her constituents agree with her. This from Giada Zampano from the AP “Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s far-right party won European elections in Italy with a strong 28% of the votes, boosting her leadership at home and consolidating her kingmaker role in Europe.” Just because the liberal media paints you as far right doesn’t mean that you are. I think it is far safer to paint most of the media as far-left than painting god, family, and country as far right. People love to point out the fascist roots of her party just like I enjoy pointing out that it was Democrats that fought to preserve slavery.
I am not familiar with this process per se of calling snap elections, but I did see a rain-soaked Rishi Sunak calling for elections in the UK last month. His country just hit a 2 and a half year high in unemployment. This was the same struggling Sunak who left the 80th anniversary D-Day memorial in France early to go back and politic last week. Binoy Kampmark writes for counterpunch.org “It was a pitiful sight. Soaked and literally washed-out, the feeble thin British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, made an announcement that caught many in his party by surprise. On July 4, the United Kingdom will be going to the polls. Necks will find themselves in nooses and placed in the guillotine – metaphorically speaking… The Spectator, Britain’s consistently conservative magazine, was certain about the implications of premature electioneering. “Calling an early election is an admission of defeat – and that, on everything from public finances to public services, the worst is yet to come.” While the losses may be checked come the date the votes are cast, the Tories are set for an all-country drubbing.”
Now normally I don’t get this feeling unless I hear the distinctive rattle of a western diamondback rattlesnake. It is the hair standing up on the back of my neck and arms, the feeling that something isn’t right. I think some call it spidey senses being activated. But then it got worse as I read what the head of the snake was doing in France, French President Emmanuel Macron. Katrina Bishop writes for CNBC “French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday said he would dissolve the country’s parliament and call for a new legislative nationwide vote after suffering a heavy defeat at EU elections. The shock announcement came after exit polls published by public broadcaster France TV indicated that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (Rassemblement National, or RN) is set to win around 31.5% of the vote, compared to 14.5% for Macron’s Renaissance party. After requesting that Macron call an election, Le Pen welcomed the news, saying on X: “We are ready for it.”
Calling the legislative election is a risky move by Macron, who could be left with no control over France’s domestic issues if Le Pen’s RN wins a parliamentary majority. Macron’s presidency isn’t due to end until 2027 and he’s unable to stand for a third term. “By unexpectedly bringing things to a head in a new parliamentary election, Macron may hope to revive the fortunes of his party,” Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg Bank, said in a note on Sunday evening. “However, barring a major swing in sentiment, his party looks set to lose heavily in the parliamentary elections.”
He added that, for a “fiscally challenged France,” new elections add uncertainty that could cause some concern for markets.”
This is akin to breaking a lamp and then calling your little brother into the room knowing that your mother is on the way to investigate while you skedaddle out the backdoor. I’m not saying I ever did this because I would never do that, and I would never break a lamp because I possessed cat-like agility and reflexes. It simply seems like something underhanded is at play here. The spidey senses are at full inquisitive nature. This feels like a trap and let me tell you why.
My understanding is that Macron would continue to hold foreign policy controls which he seems to be hinting at using with a boots on the ground war against Russia in Ukraine idea , but domestic and economic power would be ceded to the prime minister and the other party. Macron’s a particularly slippery little weasel, but a world class politician which puts him right between the plague and diphtheria on the things I like. The spidey senses are asking, could this be a setup? This RN party is getting real traction, but like we asked last week with why Trump should not want to win the next election, I feel the same thing applies here. The party should stand back and say, “no, Emmanuel, show us what you got.” Macron seems overeager to have the alternative party which he despises get a chance to lead. Why now? When overeager politicians get momentum, they can fail to see the entire chessboard. Bishop writes that the RN’s leader in polling is a 28-year-old that is pledging to focus on migration, reduce energy bills, how not mentioned, invest in nuclear, how not mentioned, and reduce the retirement age down to 60 years old, how not mentioned. Macron might as well be rolling up in a van and asking the kid if he wants some candy. Why is he doing this?
Piero Cingari wrote an article for EuroNews.com in early April “France is under intense fiscal scrutiny as it approaches weeks filled with critical events, including imminent ratings reviews from credit rating agencies. Economists warn that significant fiscal tightening may be required to prevent a downgrade… ING economist Charlotte de Montpellier believes that the French government’s aim for a 4.4% GDP deficit in 2024 now appears unachievable… “The government will have to announce measures in order to avoid a downgrading,’ de Montpellier wrote. She also expects France’s fiscal policy to shift from very expansionary to more restrictive going forward, weighing on economic growth.”
There are debt to GDP bands that are required in the Euro that are being probed by the French Debt. In the last two days the French bond yields have risen almost 30 basis points since the snap election call. The European markets were down on Monday and Tuesday as the election results spread across the continent and beyond. Banks stocks were down 4-8%. Anna Cooban writes for CNN Business, “In May, ratings agency S&P downgraded France’s long-term credit score, citing the “deterioration of (its) budgetary position,” though it still thinks the country has ample capacity to repay its debts.” They were awaiting the CPI and Federal Reserve rate decision Wednesday.
I simply sit here stunned wondering what is going on? If nothing else changes dramatically, and maybe they know something and I don’t, but for now assuming nothing changes, Biden will lose and lose big, Sunak will lose and lose big, and Macron will lose and lose big. The Democrats are still running Biden, and Sunak and Macron actually called early elections while trailing double digits. Remember it was Boris Johnson and the UK that talked Ukraine out of making peace with Russia two years ago, and now France is threatening to escalate the war against Russia. Are the rattling war sabers the answer for failed economic policies? I sure hope not, but we have also seen America get pulled in closer and closer to war with Iran Russia China pick one. I don’t have a conclusion to make, but I would tread quietly if I was a politician when it seems that the status quo is trying to give up power. That doesn’t make any sense at all. It seems that the whole world is making a right turn Clyde but it seems like the left is helping it.
Sincerely Yours,
C Thomas Printer
On this date in history… 21 years ago to be exact, American actor Gregory Peck died at age 87.
Also born on this date … Canadian clinical psychologist Jordan Peterson.
Thank you for listening today and you can find all of our articles and more on our website cthomasprinter.com.