Looking Backwards …
LB #1
Lyin’ Joe Biden as Johhny Carson used to call him got interviewed Wednesday on CNN by Erin Burnett. Folks, he had better not do a debate, not against Trump, not against RFK Jr, not against a golden retriever. I’ve seen drunk parrots with better communication skills. This wasn’t a tough interview, this wasn’t a cross examination, this was a warm bath with bubbles and Epson salts, and Biden freaked out. He claimed the polling was wrong, the economy was already fixed, and he did so weirdly. I have attached a link if you want to check it out, but here is what Steve Watson writes for Modernity News “During a brutal CNN interview aired Wednesday, Joe Biden looked shocked when host Erin Burnett reeled off a list of stats detailing how bad the economy is. Instead of suggesting how he is going to improve the situation, Biden denied any of it was real and claimed every poll showing Americans favouring Trump on the economy is wrong.”
Now this is where I find myself confused. Biden is right. Hallelujah! Hallelujah! The data is wrong on just about everything. The polling is probably wrong as well, but the if it was raining out and I told Biden it has rained a half inch and he goes bonkers saying it has only rained four tenths of an inch, does it really matter? This was all a bit nuts, but the real disaster was yet to come. When Burnett pointed out that grocery prices are up 30%+, Biden retorted “They have money to spend.” If I was running against Biden, I would run that 15 second on a loop in Times Square until election day. That was so out of touch with most of America. If admitting that you killed an aggressive puppy is political suicide, telling Americans they have money to spend in the worst inflation in 40 years should be political genocide for his party as well as himself. IF the Democrats aren’t careful that is exactly what is going to happen. Keep Joe at home on a leash if you want to win, he can’t roam alone.
LB#2
Ben and Jerry Joe wasn’t done this week though, as he has not only extended Trump’s tax cuts since taking over office, but he has now seemingly jumped ahead of Trump by stealing his idea to raise tariffs on China. My inability to tell these two apart only grows more foggy as they continue to spend more than any presidential duo in history. Swing state votes are awfully important because both of them are intent on keep car prices high for the majority of Americans so they can get votes from companies that will soon be going bankrupt again. China will respond to this as they have spent way too much money building the best EV cars on the planet to give up this easily. Rare earths, soybeans, or something else will be affected, but let’s make sure Michigan workers getting 40% raises get to go to work to build a car, no one in America can afford anymore.
Trump also got the endorsement this week of Don King, the fight promoter. ZeroHedge writes about the promoter’s glowing praise of the former president along with the other endorsements he has from the pugilistic arts of boxing and mixed martial arts. Mike Tyson, former boxing heavyweight champion, and Dana White, current UFC commissioner, have both extended their support for the ex president. For the record, because I have a memory like a damned old elephant and believe the record matters, we have the endorsement of a convicted murderer, a convicted rapist, and a business owner that just announced that cross dressing business Bud Light would be its largest sponsor ever, which means his company would be the beneficiary of at least $175m. Bud Light and its strong conservative values will probably be a welcome addition to the concocted -conservative stable. The UFC recently merged with the World Wrestling Entertainment, whose chief executive Vince McMahon, just had to resign for the second time for sexual improprieties. Trump sponsored McMahon’s WrestleMania events back in the 80’s at his casino and even appeared in the ring against him. This is what poses as an alternative to liberalism in America.
Biden took Trump’s tariff plan
LB #3
The lights are on, but no one is home with our candidates, but one light that will not be on much longer is the company Brilliant. Jennifer Pattison Tuohy and Victoria Song write for theverge.com “Brilliant, maker of smart home controllers and smart light switches, is out of money. CEO Aaron Emigh confirmed in an exclusive interview with The Verge that the company has laid off the majority of its staff, shut down its support center, and is no longer selling its products. However, the company is maintaining its servers, and existing devices are continuing to operate in customers’ homes. But for exactly how long is a question Emigh couldn’t answer.”
This was another company that tried to raise more money and found the spigot turned off. Social media is saying that all of their products are out of stock and that people can’t reach customer support either. This is what happens. In 2-3 years, there will be people driving very expensive EV cars that will have the same problem. No parts, no support, and no way to really fix anything if you have a problem. This is why long-term reputations matter, but not in the world of FOMO. But it soon will.
What is society losing with the demise of Brilliant? It was a fancy light switch. It was connected to the cloud, and it had a smartphone app and it even reacted to the voice of Alexa. You could work your doorbell and your thermostat with it as well. It seems that parents are going to have to resort to having kids for the sole purpose “Hey kid, turn off the lights, hey kid go answer the door, hey kid you touch that thermostat, and you will pull back a stub.” Forgive me for remembering a simpler time when light switches cost $0.39 down at Ace Hardware.
Looking Forwards…
LF#1
We already mentioned Biden being right with regards to numbers in the media being wrong, but now ZeroHedge has a bold prediction for the CPI coming up this week. They are forecasting that we will see a big shift to the downside in CPI because of the owner’s equivalent rent number which makes up almost 1/3 of the CPI should show a big decline. It is for a weird reason though. Rents are starting to go back up recently, but the Owner’s equivalent rent number is so lagging that just now will the effects of the last year’s declines taking place. That’s right data up to a year or even older will now cause the summer swoon in Cpi just in time for the election. It is a bold call, and they have some nice supporting models to back it up. I’m not sure it is just incompetence in the CPI calculation or if something politically sinister is driving it down now, but it will be interesting to watch this week and see if it comes in with a downside surprise for change.
We know CPI is a flawed metric. It is adjusted downward for lots of reasons, but it is also going to be watched very closely by the voters and the Fed going into these elections. We have talked about how the banks, small businesses, and a large segment of society need rates to go lower, and this might be the way they get some relief and if it starts looking good through the summer then maybe that is the comeback in the polls that Biden needs. He is trailing in just about all of them on the economy whether he believes the number or not.
LF#2
Sweden Riksbank, the world’s oldest, made a surprising pivot recently. They were well on their way to going completely cashless. They had less than 1% cash in circulation, but now they are pushing to bring back and mandating that some firms offer cash. As a lover of money that folds, I am excited to see this. Nick Corbishley writes for naked capitalism via ZeroHedge “But now the country is beginning to realise that an almost exclusively digital payments system comes with significant risks, especially at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions. In time-honoured fashion, the article in the UK Telegraph began with a spot of fearmongering about Vladimir Putin.
“People started to realise that it is very easy for Vladimir Putin to switch everything off,” Björn Eriksson, a retired police chief, former head of Interpol and leading cash advocate, told the Telegraph. “At first we were arguing for vulnerable people, the elderly, women in abusive relationships who rely on cash… Now we are talking about national security. And it’s not only Putin, it could also be organised crime.”
One fear that I lose sleep about constantly is energy and in particular energy blackouts. We have a society that somehow thinks that we can use vastly more electricity than ever, but we don’t use the right sort of production mechanisms and energy sources. Wind and solar are being pushed, but they have an intermittency problem. Nuclear, coal, and natural gas do not, but they have a political problem. What doesn’t seem to be a problem is people just using electricity at greater and greater levels like it magically appears from the wall or something. I worry that an AI data center is going to overuse the grid and our meat lockers are going to lose electricity. I can do without an AI device making a suggestion about how the top 5 things to watch on TikTok before it is gone, but I can’t go without beef for any extended time period. Cars must now be plugged in, AI data centers, bitcoin networks, and the all important social media influencers phones needs to be charged for another day of outfit choosing’s and duck face selfies. Our society would fall into disarray seemingly overnight.
LF#3
Speaking of disarray, the Wall Street Journal had a wonderful piece by Judge Glock, the director of research at the Manhattan Institute talking about how bad Chicago’s debt problem is becoming. We have talked about this, and how if the people of Chicago want to run their city into the ground ST Louis or Detroit style then go ahead. However, if you want a federal bailout and use my tax dollars to do so, then go make love to a porcupine. This is so good let’s just let me practice reading what Glock wrote
“The lion’s share of Chicago’s burden is its pension debt, totaling $34 billion, with another $2 billion for retiree health benefits. Unlike most other places in the U.S., Chicago has barely pretended to fund its four major pension plans; it has assets for only about 25% of its pension obligations and nothing set aside for healthcare. It carries the most pension debt of any American city and more than the vast majority of states.
Both Illinois and Chicago tried to reform their pensions in 2014, but two years later the Illinois Supreme Court decreed any reductions in pensions unconstitutional. This ruling left Chicago with little room for maneuver and led Moody’s to push Chicago’s debt into junk-bond status. The city punished Moody’s by no longer sending it business.
The debts and pensions of the city proper are only one part of the problem, since Chicago has one of the more confused governance structures in the nation. Residents need to worry not only about the liabilities of the city and the state but also those of the Chicago School District, the Chicago Park District, Cook County, and obscure bodies like the Forest Reserve District and the Metropolitan Water Reclamation District. These government entities add another 50% to the local debt facing Chicago taxpayers.
The basic tenet of long-term municipal debt is that it should be issued only to create long-term capital improvements, such as roads and bridges. The Chicago Tribune found in 2013 that $3 billion of the $10 billion in general obligation bonds issued by the city since 2000 went to such things as legal expenses and maintenance—often in contravention of Internal Revenue Service rules. In one case, the city used tax-exempt bonds to provide back pay to police officers.”
He nailed it. They are done. He goes on to say how lucky Chicago got when Biden’s America Rescue plan dispensed almost $2 billion to the city. They didn’t learn or listen and maintained the same habits that got them there. When you are borrowing money to pay bills, you are done. When you are borrowing money to pay simple expenses you are done. I am sure that they are borrowing money to pay their interest expense on their debt as well. Do you know who else is doing that right now? Do you know who else is done? Do you know who would have been done long ago if they didn’t have a printing press going brr.. The US government. Have a nice day.
Sincerely Yours,
C Thomas Printer
The Dow Jones finished trading at ….39,512.
The 10-year Treasury bond is at …a 4.50%
The price of Brent Crude is … at $82.79 per barrel.
The price of gold is … at $2,367/oz.
The price of silver is … at $28.39/oz.
Thank you for listening today and you can find all of our articles and more on our website cthomasprinter.com.