Looking Backwards …
LB #1
We have discussed the unsustainable fiscal path that the United States is on, and this was pointed out by Moody’s when they warned about our credit and possible downgrades, but now there is another agency that is shining the light on the US. The IMF had their big meetings in Washington DC this week and as a preface they announced that the US was being foolhardy.
Christopher Condon writes for Bloomberg, “The International Monetary Fund leveled an unusually direct criticism at US policymakers Tuesday, saying the country’s recent standout performance among advanced economies was in part driven by an unsustainable fiscal policy. The exceptional recent performance of the United States is certainly impressive and a major driver of global growth,” the IMF said in its annual World Economic Outlook. “But it reflects strong demand factors as well, including a fiscal stance that is out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability. Washington’s overspending, the report said, risks reigniting inflation and undermining long-term fiscal and financial stability around the world by ratcheting up global funding costs. “Something will have to give,” the IMF warned.”
I am like a pit bull on a bone on this topic because this very weekend our congressional leaders are meeting and voting to create new aid packages to send money far away to be blown up in war. The military aid packages for Israel and Ukraine are expected to pass, but not a border bill. Our politicians have been bought and paid for, but the debt will end up blowing up this country.
LB#2
While we struggle with debt on a spending level, the way the government finances that debt is by selling bonds and I have been asking who is going to buy the bonds…and at what price for years now. Eric Wallerstein writes for the Wall Street Journal that the street is beginning to share my sentiment.
“A series of weak auctions for U.S. Treasurys are stoking investors’ concerns that markets will struggle to absorb an incoming rush of government debt…At the same time, the government is poised to sell another $386 billion or so of bonds in May—an onslaught that Wall Street expects to continue no matter who wins November’s presidential election…The government funds its operations by selling the world’s safest bonds to investors and dealers at regular auctions. And issuance of Treasurys has exploded since the pandemic began. In the first three months of 2024, the U.S. sold $7.2 trillion of debt, the largest quarterly total on record. That surpasses the second quarter of 2020, when the government was financing a wave of Covid-19 stimulus. It also builds on a record $23 trillion of Treasurys issued last year, which raised $2.4 trillion of cash, after accounting for maturing bonds.”
We sold more debt last year than during Covid. When Israel was attacking Iran on Thursday night, bonds rallied as a flight to safety. Perhaps this is why we are seeing our involvement with so many military conflicts. Perhaps the US government knows that only a flight to safety will allow us to sell our debt. That is a damn poor excuse to get involved militarily with anything.
LB#3
We have another earmuffs moment incoming…turn down your volumes… Are you ready? It isn’t me this time using expletives but my new favorite UFC fighter. Renato Moicano a Brazilian fighter won a fight in the octagon and during his post-fight interview in the ring with Joe Rogan went on a wonderful diatribe, “If you care about your fucking country, read Ludwig von Mises and the six lessons of the Austrian economic school, motherfuckers!”
I don’t know who this fighter is and I don’t know where he developed an appreciation for von Mises, but after using a von Mises quote last week and then hearing that a fighter is using his two minute platform and extolling the viewers to educate themselves on the highest form of economics, well it warmed my soul and gave me hope. I have attached a link to both the interview and the 6 lessons of Ludwig von Mises. Sometimes when you are a lighthouse fighting against the tide to warn the world, you don’t realize that there are other lighthouses out there doing the same. I certainly didn’t know that one would be a tattooed Brazilian with cauliflower ear, but Renato thank you for your service.
Read Ludwig Von Mises Motherf$ckers
Looking Forwards…
LF#1
The debt is straining our system, but it is more and more creating a bifurcated system. Inflation affecting those that buy consumer items to survive are unfairly targeted because inflationary pressures affect so much of what their necessities are as a percentage of their income. Jeff Bezos might have to pay more for a new yacht or a new mammary enhancement on his girlfriend, but those aren’t necessities, they are luxuries or for recreation.
ZeroHedge has a masterclass of an article that summarizes our situation written by Peter Reagan for Birch Gold Group. In the article he addresses the 40% food inflation since 2019 and its true cause, the expansion of the money supply by what, that’s right 41%. He gets it, prices at the pump or the grocery store are the measurements of inflation, not inflation. Inflation is the amount of money in the system. If we had 41% more goods and 41% more money then prices would be flat, but we don’t and we don’t. Over a year ago when the natural gas prices were severely impacting the UK we noted that in a survey some Britons were having to eat less meals to survive. I couldn’t believe this could happen in a first world country, well guess what.
It is happening here, Reagan writes “Nearly one in five homeowners and renters reported skipping meals to afford housing in Biden’s economy, according to a new survey conducted by Redfin. The median asking rental price increased from less than $1,700 when Biden took office in January 2021 to nearly $2,000 as of February, according to Redfin’s data.”
Whoa, this is Bidenomics. Reagan also points out the bullshit nature of the jobs report being released from the government. “Since August 2023, total part-time jobs grew 1.4 million. During the same period, full-time jobs fell by more than 1.3 million.”
When anyone doing measurements doesn’t understand the underlying source nature of the measurements, errors in judgment can occur. Thinking we have a good economy because we have a strong jobs market is yet another example that this economy is as fragile as Will Smith’s marriage.
LF#2
There is a saying “A fool and their money are soon parted” well I have a saying of my own, “A fool in a house they can’t afford are soon parted.” I was reading an article this week in MarketWatch by Aarthi Swaminathan and this is how it started, “I applied for a modification of my home loan due to the uncertainty of my job. It’s a regular 30-year mortgage with a rate of 5.25%. I owe $370,000 on it. I found out last year, after talking to a few people who have also done a modification, that it should have been only for 10 extra years. But the lender stretched it out to a total of 52 years.” This article was asking for advice on what to do like a Dear Abbey article for financial situations. I found this hilarious, you applied for a modification, no you applied for, received, and signed your life away for this modification. Don’t try to spin this and put this on the lender. You signed the paperwork lady or fella. This always annoyed me during the great financial crisis about how predatory lenders were making loans to people that couldn’t afford a house and then these same unqualified people lost their house. Guess what, they got to live in that house for a time when they didn’t deserve it. That is more than a responsible renter in an apartment gets to say. Contracts are negotiated between two parties and if you are foolish and make foolish decisions there should be consequences. That is how lessons are learned. This homeowner now has a mortgage for basically the same price for 52 years as her original. Let this be an example of saying no. No, I don’t need to refinance for such a lengthy term, no I can’t get refinanced on good terms then maybe I need to get out of this house and find something that I can afford and no there is nothing in the Constitution that gives you a right to be an idiot and get away without consequences. When you sign something like a mortgage, it means that you expect to pay it or the bank gets your house. If you don’t like those terms, find a landlord.
LF#3
Back in January I read an article on ZeroHedge that caught my eye but sadly didn’t make the cut for Looking Backwards Looking Forwards and it turns out that perhaps it should have. DEI, which stands for diversity, equity, and inclusion has now been a policy initiative for some time and our foolish government laps it up like a kitten on a saucer of milk. However, hiring un or under qualified people in occupations of life and death will soon show to have consequences.
The Transportation secretary ole’ Pothole Pete Buttigieg, is now overseeing airplanes that are falling apart but being allowed to fly, ships that are slamming into bridges and paralyzing ports and port cities, and don’t forget train derailments like in East Palestine, Ohio. These accidents are nothing compared to his FAA looming disaster in which ZeroHedge writes on January 14th “Americans were stunned on Sunday afternoon after Fox News reported the Federal Aviation Administration, overseen by Mayor Secretary Pete Buttigieg’s Transportation Department, rolled out a new “Diversity and Inclusion” program to hire people with “severe intellectual disability” and “psychiatric disability” (among various other disabilities), just days after the latest mid-air near-disaster involving a Boeing 737 Max heightened the public’s attention to the potentially deadly impact of woke Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion policies in the skies.
“Targeted disabilities are those disabilities that the Federal government, as a matter of policy, has identified for special emphasis in recruitment and hiring,” the FAA’s website read.
“They include hearing, vision, missing extremities, partial paralysis, complete paralysis, epilepsy, severe intellectual disability, psychiatric disability, and dwarfism.”
The FAA’s “diversity, equity, and inclusion” (DEI) hiring plan claims that “diversity is integral to achieving FAA’s mission of ensuring safe and efficient travel across our nation and beyond.”
Even Elon Musk tweeted at the time about this “Do you want to fly in an airplane where they prioritize DEI hiring over your safety? That is actually happening.”
I have to say I don’t like my allies here, but this is what happened on Thursday morning April 18th at Reagan National Airport in Washington DC. A Southwest plane and Jet Blue plane almost collided. I have attached a ZeroHedge link with the tower communication and the location of the airplanes when it happened. Luckily both pilots identified the mistake and stopped short. The panic in the voice of the controller was palpable. The article goes on to report that another near miss happened in Austin in February. The government’s response was to give the controllers more time off between shifts. A catastrophe is coming, and incompetence will be the reason. Please explain to the victim’s families how DEI policies are more important than competence in keeping air travel safe. Our god-damned stupid government.
DEI really means Death expected incoming
Sincerely Yours,
C Thomas Printer
The Dow Jones finished trading at …………37,986
The 10-year Treasury bond is at …a 4.621%
The price of Brent Crude is … at $87.22 per barrel.
The price of gold is … trading at an all-time high at $2,405./oz.
The price of silver is … a 52 week high at $28.74/oz.
Thank you for listening today and you can find all of our articles and more on our website cthomasprinter.com.