I’ve spent much of the weekend glued to the events of the Middle East. On Saturday morning, Hamas invaded Israel from the Gaza Strip by air, land and sea. I wrote a bit about this for Looking Backwards Looking Forwards but let’s recap what happened before we try to figure out what is really happening. Let’s try an old Charlie Munger trick and look at the problem from both sides and perhaps we can glean some insight into what is really going on.
Israel has been holding the Palestinians in oppression for about 15 years. Israel and Egypt to the south have blockaded the Gaza Strip and do not allow entrance or exit. Trade has dropped 98% since the blockade in 2007. Poverty levels are over 70% and unemployment is 48%, twice what unemployment was during the United States Great Depression. Human Rights Watch calls the regime oppressive; others call them open- air prisons, and others call them concentration camps. I think the last one is a bit hyperbolic and the person that said it should probably read a little bit about concentration camps because I am quite certain that both the writer and the Palestinian people are a little too well fed for that comparison. The other two might be true. Amnesty International goes so far as to call it apartheid, a crime against humanity. 21 hour blackouts, an annual income of around $3k USD equivalent, the Israelis even spray their crops with toxins, yes it seems that the Israelis are treating the citizens of the Gaza strip pretty terribly. A Palestinian spokesman to the UN said “we are not sub-humans.”
The reason that Israel does this is because every time they relax sanctions, the Hamas get rockets and fire them into Israel killing their people. That sounds like a reason for a lockup to me. The problem is locking a couple million people over the action of its few leaders. I can promise you that I would be pissed if I was painted with the same brush as Lyin’ Joe Biden. But what is Israel to do with these flare ups? These flareups have happened for years going back decades. This is a modern version of a 1,000 year old fight, but the Israelis have a Trump card at least they did until 2020. The US gives Israel weapons, modern technology, and their complete support. If Israel and Palestine were fighting a fair fight then by all means touch gloves and come out fighting people, but the deck is stacked and the Palestinians know it. The Arab people even know it.
The Saudis called for a halt to the escalation of war in contrast to the UK and US that said Israel has a right to defend itself. The Saudis blamed Israel saying “The Kingdom recalls its repeated warnings of the dangers of the explosion of the situations as a result of the continued occupations, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights, and the repeating of systematic provocation against its sanctities.” Considering Joe Biden’s response was to send a carrier group closer to the Middle East I am guessing that the Kingdom won’t be invited to the White House for Christmas. Iran is supporting their Palestinian brothers in arms and maybe more. Some reports have Iran masterminding and planning the entire attack. The propaganda is quite thick so trying to find honest reporting can be difficult right now. This is one of the things that I find that doesn’t sit well with me.
Israel’s response has been swift. They fired rockets into the Gaza strip killing a bunch of civilians, women, and kids. Apartment buildings have been destroyed but Israel had claimed that they were terrorist targets. If you tell me what newspaper you are reading and I will tell you what the buildings were called. Speaking of newspaper, the Israelis are calling this their 9/11. Let’s hope they don’t start two wars, spend $4 trillion and then come home with nothing to show for it except wounded and dead soldiers. If they are calling it their 9/11 as a comparison of complete intelligence failures of the military to prevent a surprise attack on their country? Yes, in that case it probably is similar.
What now? Israel by all reports is amassing tanks and seem to be readying a ground invasion of Gaza. The Israelis are a people best left unscorned. I don’t think Gaza is prepared for what Israel is about to send their way. But they had to know that beforehand, right? The rave shooting videos were terrifying. It was eerily reminiscent of the Las Vegas concert shooting when people just started running in every direction. If you are Hamas, you are angry and want to strike back at what you perceive to be the infidels. While your children are struggling with malnutrition, the Israelis are at a rave dance party just across the border. Your strict Muslim beliefs have your blood boiling as girls in crop tops are twerking to the music and not covering themselves in public. Ok, I see your perspective. You want to strike out and inflict pain on the ones persecuting you. But paragliders, boats, and blowing through the wall just to kill innocents? You would know how that is going to play on the world stage. Taking hostages back to Gaza same. This feels like using the anger of the Palestinians as a pawn.
These are military planned invasions but terrorist tactics not soldiers. This operation was tactically brilliant in that in caught a military as savvy as the Israelis off guard, but it should have been followed up with troops and provisions, not a few automatic weapons for neighborhood clashes. Now Israel has already bombed the death rates back to even from afar, and are amassing a ground invasion for an old fashioned ass-kicking. One that Hamas knew it was going to get if all it could send into Israel was Toyotas and automatic weapons. Someone else is using them as a pawn. Will Israel see a multi-pronged attack from others in the region in the coming days? According to the Wall Street Journal, Egypt has warned Israel officials that a ground invasion into Gaza would trigger a response from Hezbollah out of Lebanon. Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel on Sunday after being warned by Biden to not escalate the conflict, but it wasn’t sustained.
It seems I wasn’t the only one trying to decipher who wins in this situation. The number of articles already written about how Russia is using this to their advantage is striking. I saw a news report, and I couldn’t find it again, but it said Ukraine’s Zelensky was on the phone 6 minutes after the attacks started to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He wanted to plant his flag early that any support going to Israel didn’t take away any of his support? He also would be whipped and long defeated if it wasn’t for the military provisions of the US and Europe. It seems that he and Israel have something in common. Doing the dirty work for the United States and buying military provisions from US contractors.
Why the attack now? Taking hostages, shooting innocent concert goers, and roaming car to car and door to door shooting civilians? This plays horribly in the media. No one will feel sympathetic to the Gaza or the Palestinians after this. Which made the response of China all the more interesting. Israel is upset that their friend, as they see China, didn’t come out with a stronger condemnation of the Hamas invasion. China said “the fundamental way out of the conflict lies in implementing a two-state solution and establishing an independent State of Palestine.”
The thing that makes the most sense to me is this strike is aimed at disrupting accelerating US brokered peace talks between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Iran would have to find this threatening. According to a piece in the WSJ, building on peace deals with Egypt and Jordan, expanding Israeli ties with Gulf Arab states could create a chain of American allies linking three key choke points of global trade—the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab Al Mandeb connecting the Red Sea to the Arabian Sea, said Hussein Ibish, senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington.
“That’s very bad news for Iran,” Ibish said. “If they could do this, the strategic map changes dramatically to Iran’s detriment.” I would say that is very bad for China’s Belt and Road Initiative as well. China is trying to control those same seaways or at least have access to them. In March of 2021 Joe Biden told reporters that he had been concerned about the emerging partnership between Iran and China for years. Old Joe was right, the very next day in March of 2021, Iran and China signed a 25 year agreement with China being a major trading partner and in exchange for discounted Iranian Oil. Here is what Ali Shamkhani, the secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council tweeted “The signing of the Iran and China Strategic Partnership Roadmap is part of the #ActiveRsistance policy. The world isn’t just the West & West isn’t just the lawbreaking (he put the flags of the US, UK, France and Germany in here). Biden’s concern is correct: the flourishing of strategic cooperation in the East is accelerating US decline.
He’s mocking Joe. China has its route to Europe on the Silk Road Economic Belt through Iran and Turkey but their Maritime Silk Road Initiative goes through the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait separating Djibouti and Yemen. China can’t appear involved, but Iran is already being sanctioned by the US, so it outsources its planning to Iran and Iran works with terrorists to help terrorists do what they do best. These weren’t soldiers and they only cared about hate. The Arab hatred, perhaps well earned, for the Jew. As usual, the civilians of both sides are the ones being killed, kidnapped, and wounded. My sympathies are with them and their families, but I am afraid they are being used and that sickens me. Keep an eye on the rest of the board, the pawns have been brought out.
Sincerely Yours,
C Thomas Printer
On this date in history…21 years ago to be exact, Congress passed a bipartisan bill granting George W. Bush authority to go into Iraq.
Since today’s article was a thought exercise and a hypothesis, how about a little factoid- worker bees usually die within 6 weeks during warmer seasons, they literally work themselves to death. Americans are so not worker bees.
Also born on this date, the man the Brooklyn Daily Eagle called the “Henry Ford of Housing,” Donald’s father, Fred Trump.